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Prediction for CME (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-30T20:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40987/-1
CME Note: Wide CME observed first by STEREO A COR2 at 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Updated observations in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 from preliminary analysis where they were not included due to field-of-view with GOES CCOR-1 and a downlink gap resuming at 2025-08-30T21:20Z for SOHO LASCO. The source for this CME is a long duration M2.7 class flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) which began at 2025-08-30T19:11Z and peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z, viewed well in SDO AIA 131. Wide field line opening, dimming, and an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211 and GOES SUVI 284. Brightening as a double ribbon flare and post-eruptive arcade observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304 and GOES SUVI 304. Additionally observed from STEREO A EUVI 195 as field line opening and dimming, and STEREO A EUVI 304 as brightening, around N03E60 as viewed from STEREO A. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T20:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50831
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 31 Aug 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Aug 2025  10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Sep 2025  10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 060
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Sep 2025  10CM FLUX: 222 / AP: 023

Coronal mass ejections: A halo CME erupted on 30 August, first seen at
20:12 UT on SOHO LASCO C2. The CME was associated with an M2.7 flare from
SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA 4199), located at N04E01 (almost at disk
center). This CME is Earth directed, preliminary speeds calculation
estimates are about 1600 km/s, with an arrival time around 14:00 UT on 1
September. These values may be updated in the coming hours as the result of
ongoing analysis.

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A full halo CME erupted on 30 August, first seen at 20:12 UT on SOHO LASCO C2. The CME was associated with an M2.7 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA 4199), located at N04E01 (almost at disk center). This CME is Earth directed, preliminary speeds calculation estimates are about 1600 km/s, with an arrival time around 14:00 UT on 1 September. Significant geomagnetic disturbances can be expected then (major/severe geomagnetic storm levels). These values may be updated in the coming hours as the result of ongoing analysis.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Lead Time: 31.85 hour(s)
Difference: 1.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2025-08-31T12:35Z

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